by Andy Rowlands,
Last week the UN said ‘climate change is out of control’ after the mini-heatwave experienced across much of Europe in June
The Guardian, that bastion of accurate reporting, was quick to ramp up the fearmongering, but its article shot itself in the foot by including comments from NOAA that observations are not matching computer predictions.
The article reads:
After record breaking days on Monday and Tuesday, unofficial analysis shows the world may have seen its hottest seven days in a row.
Unofficial. May. Is this what passes for science now; supposition?
“If we persist in delaying key measures that are needed, I think we are moving into a catastrophic situation, as the last two records in temperature demonstrates,” António Guterres said, referring to the world temperature records broken on Monday and Tuesday.
The average global air temperature was 17.18C (62.9F) on Tuesday, according to data collated by the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), surpassing the record 17.01C reached on Monday.
That figure was for one day.
The average global temperature for much of the last 600 million years has been 22C as you can see in the image below. The average global temperature now is 12C.
As we showed in an article by John Dee last week, the June heatwave lasted two weeks and was 0.1C warmer than the heatwave in 1976, which lasted for six weeks.
For the seven-day period ending Wednesday, the daily average temperature was .04C (.08F) higher than any week in 44 years of record-keeping, according to the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer data.
Another computer model then. And 44 years? That is only back to 1979, when satellites began measuring air temperature. What about the thermometer record?
In America that era began in 1880, and 1659 in England.
The Central England Temperature Record, the longest continuously monitored in the world, shows that England has warmed by a whopping 1.2C over the last 364 years. Frightening!
That metric showed that Earth’s average temperature on Wednesday remained at the record high of 17.18C.
Climate Reanalyzer uses data from the NCEP climate forecast system to provide a time series of daily mean two-metre air temperature, based on readings from surface, air balloon and satellite observations.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), whose figures are considered the gold standard in climate data, said on Thursday it could not validate the unofficial numbers.
It noted that the reanalyzer uses model output data, which it called “not suitable” as substitutes for actual temperatures and climate records. The NOAA monitors global temperatures and records on a monthly and an annual basis, not daily.
“We recognise that we are in a warm period due to climate change, and combined with El Niño and hot summer conditions, we’re seeing record warm surface temperatures being recorded at many locations across the globe,” the NOAA said.
So it is El Nino creating unexpecteedly warm temperatures then, a natural event?
And NOAA cannot validate the ‘unofficial’ numbers, so why report it then?
Nevertheless, scientists agree they indicate climate change is reaching uncharted territory and that the increased heat from anthropogenic global heating combined with the return of El Niño would lead to more record-breaking temperatures.
Which scientists? None are named. Here we are back to ‘consensus’ again, a consensus among those who are paid to produce their adjusted temperature figures that cannot be validated by NOAA; the ‘gold standard in climate data’.
The UN confirmed the return of El Niño, a sporadic weather pattern, on Tuesday. The last major El Niño was in 2016, which remains the hottest year on record.
I refer to my comment above about El Nino’s, and notice it is referred to as a weather event not climate.
“Chances are that the month of July will be the warmest ever, and with it the hottest month ever … ‘ever’ meaning since the Eemian [interglacial period], which is indeed some 120,000 years ago,” Dr Karsten Haustein, a research fellow in atmospheric radiation at Leipzig University, said.
Agreed about the Eemian, but that was a natural event, with CO2 much lower than today which, of course, is ignored.
Various parts of the world have been experiencing heatwaves and on Thursday the EU’s climate monitoring service said the world had experienced its hottest June on record last month.
The southern US has been sweltering under an intense heat dome in recent weeks, including on the national 4 July holiday on Tuesday. In parts of China, an enduring heatwave has continued, with temperatures reaching above 35C.
Overall, one of the largest contributors to this week’s heat records is an exceptionally mild winter in the Antarctic. Parts of the continent and nearby ocean were 10-20C (18-36F) higher than averages from 1979 to 2000.
Quite possibly, but all that means is the Antarctic was about -40 to -50C instead of the usual -60 to -70C.
“Temperatures have been unusual over the ocean and especially around the Antarctic this week, because wind fronts over the Southern Ocean are strong pushing warm air deeper south,” said Raghu Murtugudde, professor of atmospheric, oceanic and earth system science at the University of Maryland and visiting faculty at the Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai.
Chari Vijayaraghavan, a polar explorer and educator who has visited the Arctic and Antarctic regularly for the past 10 years, said global warming is obvious at both poles and threatens the region’s wildlife as well as driving ice melt that raises sea levels.
“Warming climates might lead to increasing risks of diseases such as the avian flu spreading in the Antarctic that will have devastating consequences for penguins and other fauna in the region,” Vijayaraghavan said.
Penguins live mostly along the Antarctic coast and the sub-Antarctic islands. They do not live in the interior.
As for ‘might lead to increasing risks of diseases such as the avian flu spreading in the Antarctic’, ‘might’ isn’t good enough, and actually means there is no evidence of anything like that. It is just more supposition and fearmongering.
Typical Guardian fare these days, but sadly the gullible and the indoctrinated will believe it.
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