Did The Vaccine Eradicate Smallpox?

The widespread faith in vaccines is often traced back to the assumption that the first vaccine in human history effectively eradicated one of the deadliest pandemics. However, does this belief hold true?

The campaign integrated mass vaccination programs, surveillance of outbreaks, and rapid response to any reported cases. By 1977, the last natural case of smallpox was recorded in Somalia, leading to the WHO’s declaration of smallpox eradication in 1980.

Yet this begs the question: Is there any direct evidence that the infection or mortality rate has declined due to vaccination?

She spent countless hours at Yale’s medical library and other libraries scouring medical journals, books, and newspapers to locate mortality data and create computerized graphs.

Records from Boston, starting in 1811, reveal recurring smallpox epidemics beginning around 1837. Despite the introduction of vaccination mandates in 1855, epidemics continued to occur in 1859 to 1860, 1864 to 1865, and 1867, with a particularly severe outbreak from 1872 to 1873. The continual reoccurrence of these epidemics in Massachusetts indicates that stringent vaccination regulations had no positive impact on curbing smallpox.

The death rate for smallpox declined after 1872, but there is no evidence that vaccination had anything to do with it. In the early 1900s, death from smallpox all but vanished from England.

However, these measures didn’t prevent outbreaks. Smallpox remained rampant.

Between 1885 and 1892, with over 25 million vaccinations and revaccinations, there were still 156,175 smallpox cases and 39,979 deaths. From 1892 to 1897, Japan recorded 142,032 smallpox cases and 39,536 deaths.

Even after an 1896 law mandating vaccination every five years for everyone, the country saw 41,946 cases and 12,276 deaths in 1897 alone—a 32 percent mortality rate—almost double the rate before the vaccination era.

It’s important to note that these changes occurred independent of vaccination efforts, suggesting that factors other than the vaccine played a significant role in declining smallpox rates.

Some researchers propose that either a decrease in the virulence of the smallpox virus, or the natural progression of the disease through susceptible populations, could explain the decline in cases independent of vaccination efforts.

Mandatory vaccination laws have proven to be ineffective in controlling smallpox outbreaks. This is similar to what we saw with COVID-19 during the past four years; new mutants would come and go, regardless of vaccination mandates.

No clear link was found at the country level between the fully vaccinated percentage of the population and the number of new COVID-19 cases reported. Interestingly, the trend even hints at a slight increase in COVID-19 cases per million people in countries with a higher vaccination rate. For example, Israel, despite more than 60 percent of its population being fully vaccinated, recorded the highest number of COVID-19 cases per million people in the last week.

In the 2,947 counties in the United States, there was no sign of decreased COVID-19 cases associated with higher vaccination rates.

Sourced from four articles, Dr. Mahoney’s paper, states, “Vaccine efficacy is 95% among vaccinees in whom a 1-2 cm loculated and umbilicated pustule (called a Jennerian pustule) is noted 6-8 days after inoculation.”

This study was conducted by nine researchers from the Department of Pediatrics, University of California at San Diego and Los Angeles, and supported by the NIH.

The prestigious study involving a group of 786 children looked at the effectiveness and side effects of four smallpox vaccines given at different concentrations. Results showed that three licensed vaccines (New York City Board of Health strains grown in calf lymph or chorioallantoic membrane, and the Lister vaccine) were similarly effective.

Vaccine effectiveness was assessed by the vaccinee’s response, especially by observing any significant reactions around the tenth day, typically involving a central lesion occurring after the seventh day.

The WHO’s assertion of 95 percent efficacy appears to be grounded in the fact that 97 percent of children exhibited both a “major reaction” (take) and a serologic take. However, this doesn’t constitute direct evidence of the vaccine’s role in eradicating smallpox disease; it merely indicates the presence of a scar on the skin and an antibody response in the blood among vaccinated individuals.

Regardless of skin take, serological take, or immune memory, it’s important to note that these observations belong to indirect support rather than direct clinical protection. There is an undeniable gap between the investigative data and the statement that smallpox was eradicated by the vaccine.

The answer resides in two fundamental components of our immune system: natural or innate immunity versus adaptive immunity.

Our body’s immune system can be roughly separated into five layers. The first three layers are considered innate or natural immunity, which includes our skin, nose, and eyes; the mucosal epithelial cells in the respiratory or gastroenterological tracks which secrete powerful antiviral proteins such as interferon; and the innate immune cells such as natural killer cells and macrophages capable of eradicating invading viruses. The last two layers of immunity are specialized task forces. They involve T cells and B cells that can generate virus-specific cellular immunity or antibodies.