Mortgage-yield spread signals rising consumer risk, hinting at economic downturn pressures. 30 year average US mortgage rates are above 7% again! Dow Jones 1929 vs 2024 update.

This is one of the most reliable metrics for gauging consumer risk as perceived by financial institutions in my view.

The spread between mortgage rates and 30-year yields represents the additional risk premium required by mortgage originators to extend credit to consumers, in… pic.twitter.com/eCQEgyTgGb

— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) December 21, 2024

BREAKING: 30 year average US mortgage rates are above 7% again, per Mortgage News Daily.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 21, 2024

$500 billion for 5 days? 🤨 https://t.co/RkcFxJ0OGq pic.twitter.com/NXfcFpSr3f

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 21, 2024

Extremely important chart

Study carefully, carefully study. pic.twitter.com/CRLLilwhWe

— The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 21, 2024

Dow Jones 1929 vs 2024 update https://t.co/YsVqhsdp0i pic.twitter.com/3IheibmdFv

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 21, 2024

Its over!!!

Few weeks left as we finalise the formalities.

Enjoy what remains.

God bless and Godspeed. pic.twitter.com/VS5GjySexZ

— The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 21, 2024

The equal weight S&P 500 just gave back the entire election rally and is now backtesting prior support.

And yet complacency is rampant ahead of the holidays. pic.twitter.com/eWC3ReziJp

— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 20, 2024

“builders are dealing with the most unsold inventory since the Great Finance Crisis”

— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) December 20, 2024

Fed cut interest rates and 30 yr. fixed mortgage rates flew back up to 7% in an instant

Since the Fed started lowering rates in September, 30 yr. rates have flown from 6.1% to 6.7%

🧵 It’s likely only going to get worse and here’s why: pic.twitter.com/cz7NkLNjJL

— Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ (@burrytracker) December 20, 2024

2. Inflation

Rate expectations have rose because even though we got close to the Fed’s 2% target, the pace of price increases has recently stalled out above that level and even inched up to 3%

Powell said on Wednesday that near-term inflation forecast had “fallen apart” pic.twitter.com/00z9GRlAnC

— Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ (@burrytracker) December 20, 2024

4. From bad to worse

• Fed on Wednesday forecasted higher inflation over the next couple of years
• There was also a jump in the number of officials who said that the risks to inflation are “weighted to the upside”

uncertainty = market panic pic.twitter.com/XUl09IoliQ

— Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ (@burrytracker) December 20, 2024

This is truly a historic moment in the US economy

US government interest expense has gone parabolic in the past few years

And has now crossed a staggering $1.1 trillion

At this rate, they are expected to reach $1.7 trillion by 2034

US debt crisis is now becoming a MAJOR… pic.twitter.com/AJGPfddx7c

— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) December 20, 2024

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